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A brief analysis of TikTok's future dividends, TikTok's white entry reference

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at the present timetiktokHaving gone through the early market dividend windfall, what are the other dividends under this stage? I'm kind of doingtiktokComparatively early, few organizations are still alive at the same time, including merchants doing TK selling goods have almost collapsed 90% or more.

So being a survivor, I'd like to share my understanding of TikTok and plans for the future, in the hope that it will help those who are watching or doing TikTok.

Two years ago, TikTok was still in its earliest days, the policies and support given by the platform were all still relatively large, and the market was relatively chaotic, so there were still a lot of tricky ways to get quick results.

Do TikTok agency is also the official support of the business of the top of the project, early on a friend through some of my articles to find ideas and practice, but also achieved very good results, but he is not doing now, I myself from the peak of the 18 agencies permissions, downsizing to the current 6. It all boils down to the first wave of the platform's dividend period has passed, open source or direct exit has become an inevitable choice.

And what are the reasons for this situation? And if you do TikTok next, how should you cut in? I will analyze in this article, the next is just my personal opinion, I hope you can look at it objectively. Article content framework:

I. Analysis of the current status of TK

II. Dividends under the current phase of TK

III. TK's next development direction

IV. My new thoughts on the TK trackA brief analysis of TikTok's future dividends, TikTok's white entry reference

I. Analysis of the current status of TK

(1) Supporting the local community:

TK currently e-commerce opened only 9 countries (Singapore, Malay, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, the United States, the United Kingdom), the platform almost all the head of the e-commerce brand is a local company (part of the Chinese background, but also fell the localization), almost no cross-border sellers to become the head.

Therefore, TK's strategy to support localization is very obvious, this is about diplomacy, I will not expand here, simply put, in order to preserve the e-commerce environment in each country, only allowed to benefit local companies, to keep the tax revenue and employment opportunities in the local area, which can be seen by referring to the 2-month suspension of e-commerce in Indonesia, and the ultimate solution is the merger of TK and Tokopedia, the largest e-commerce platform in the local area. The final solution is for TK to merge with Tokopedia, the largest local e-commerce platform, and TK's annual GMV in Indonesia must be more than 30% from Tokopedia.

So this status quo is consistent with what I said two years ago.The only way to be a long-lasting e-commerce brand is to localize it.

(In addition to say a secret, TK company 90% more than responsible for TK cross-border staff, have been transferred to go in charge of localization or do the whole hosting, so cross-border sellers are almost no one management, support is also very difficult to cash)A brief analysis of TikTok's future dividends, TikTok's white entry reference

(2) Continuous prohibition of unfair competition:

We Chinese are smarter, so there are a lot of novel ways to play can quickly pull up the GMV, such as unmanned live broadcast, short video handling, mixed cut matrix, digital people, etc. I can responsibly tell you that all of the above ways to play are officially prohibited, just deal with the level is different.

Why do I know? Because I have tried, seal, limit flow not to mention, the most ruthless time, my organization backstage more than 600 electric business people, that time the most all Indonesia, GMV ranked third on the whole network, and then tied up more than a dozen unmanned live account test, I would have liked to be so much real people, mix a few unmanned broadcasting, to check it is also a warning chant.

As a result, the official second month to find out, the agency are blocked to me, there are more than 300,000 commission has not been settled, I went to their company to make trouble three times also did not want to come back, so never challenge the platform's bottom line.

I know that now a lot of domestic do TK e-commerce video handling, because the overseas account can not be resolved, can not return the money, think of hanging to the MCN below, and then the agency can set 100% collect commission, with this way back to the money.

However, this chain is also not work, TK is responsible for opening the organization's rights to friends told me that now every month there are more than 100 applications for the organization, and then the platform also need to seal more than 100 organizations every month, that is to say, hanging this account of the organization barely survive 3 months, the money can not get back.

Carrying mixtures of video, the platform is actually not so strict check, after all, is the need to diversify the content, but as long as it is hung up on a small yellow car, that the audit standard directly to the most stringent, so if you do it in the country, it is best to also be a short video of the original or real people out of the scene of the live broadcast. This I also said two years ago.

 

A brief analysis of TikTok's future dividends, TikTok's white entry reference

(3) The TK platform is not profitable:

According to the figures in the TK2023 annual report, TK2023 is still losing money, this is probably something people didn't expect, but it is what it is.

TK will only generate $16 billion in revenue in 2023, and will need to ensure operations and maintenance in more than 150 countries, as well as tens of thousands of overseas employees, so TK is losing money. But TK is a product developed around the same time as Jittery, and Jittery's annual GMV has now exceeded the trillion mark, and Byte's advertising revenue alone will exceed $300 billion a year, but TK is still losing money.

From this year's policy, TK is guiding us to advertise, and the incentives for organizations have changed from cash to traffic vouchers. This strategy is to let us have a taste of sweetness, and then let us spend our own money to buy traffic, and the strategy for the merchants and darens side is the same, which means that TK is going to start harvesting the market as a way of monetizing it.

So from this year onwards, the era of jacking the wool of TK platforms has completely passed, and we can't be as smart as the brains of bytes tens of thousands of employees. So passive acceptance or elimination has become the only two options.

II. Dividends under the current phase of TK

(1) Mall Bonus:

This is a strategy that TK has been implementing since last year, and as you should know, TK has a fully hosted business in many countries, which people think is modeled after Temu, but that's not what the official meeting with us said.

Byte has a set of independent algorithms, they found that the ROI of the mall traffic is very high, almost to 1: 100 or more, so it is the most profitable business into a self-management, but this also means that the message is relatively closed, who can get the message, who has the supply chain advantage, then there is a big dividend period.

This play can be referred to Taobao early store group store product play, crazy store, crazy on the product, so we can completely TK as an e-commerce platform to operate, do not fall into the misunderstanding of the new media industry, a change of mind is also the sea is wide and the sky is high!

A brief analysis of TikTok's future dividends, TikTok's white entry reference

(2) Pay to play:

This board I have mentioned above, TK want to profit, then the big head of the source of income is certainly from the paid traffic, now paid traffic pry natural traffic method is my company's main method of obtaining traffic, which also allows me to maintain monthly sales of 300,000 single data, which is why I did not quit the main reason.

TK and I reconciled. If two years ago TK and I were in our honeymoon period, now we are a couple after 10 years of marriage, no longer passionate, and all that's left is to live together.

Use the method of paid traffic to improve the single volume, so that the platform earns money, the business earns money, we can also earn money on the agency side, we can live in peace. The only difficulty in this piece is that the cost of trial and error is quite high, TK's user labels are not precise, there are not a million to step on the pit, it is difficult to find the law of payment.

It's also for this reason that TK's ad agencies change almost every few months. If you know a lot about the pay to play game, give it a try, if you're a newbie don't make a push into this board, save your money for some other industry.

(3) Avoid the e-commerce market, which is the main battlefield:

I have mentioned above, TK open electricity 9 countries, Chinese players 95% more than go to do the United States area, first of all, I recognize that the United States is a good market!

But I this person it, do not like in the big market to fight, I always think that my ability is limited, if a big market has 30% people can achieve big results, then I do not have confidence can become that successful 30%, but if a small market, the cake is small, the competition is also small, 70% can achieve a little bit of a small result, then I have the confidence that I can not become that eliminated 30%.

This may also be the main reason why I can still persist in TK, honestly, I have seen a large number of people through the jitterbug a few years on the big G, live in a villa, and TK I do a few years, honestly did not bring me the expected income, but the new media industry is not there a sentence, the era of traffic flooding, there is no real winner, only the survivors, who can hold on to it, who will be able to not be eliminated by the times! I'm not sure if I'm going to be able to do that.

So do TK because I strongly believe in the trend, try to stay alive on the right path, then the rest is just waiting for the wind to blow.

That is why I suggest that we can focus on other markets other than the United States region. Even though the profits are much lower, the competition will be much smaller and the sales volume will be large. The owner of Golden Dragon Fish is the richest man in Malaya, and the business he does in Southeast Asia is all about thin margins, but that doesn't stop him from being one of the top 100 billionaires in Forbes at all, ah.

(4) Live entertainment:

I know that most people are very disdainful to do entertainment live, feel that this is not the right way, and indeed so, we do entertainment broadcasting people, to raise so many beautiful hostesses, really with the nightclub "mommy" is no difference, is an online, an offline only, the logic is to coax the big brother to be happy, and sometimes the family relatives ask me, I am not good to introduce me!

But in business, TK, even though its total numbers, e-commerce numbers and so on are not as good as Jitterbug in almost every way, has one segment that far exceeds Jitterbug, and that's live entertainment revenue.

The reason is very simple, jitterbug again cattle, but only one country in China is using, TK again pull crotch, but also more than 150 countries are using, the world's men are the same, see beautiful women can not walk, there are beautiful women coaxing, he can not control the wallet, this is the nature.

So if you want to try TK, you can also try to cut from the entertainment live, after all, China's beauty anchor is more, and are trained by China's guild is very powerful, may give them a change of stage, she will be able to give you a big surprise.

And TK has a natural threshold, so the probability of an anchor jumping ship and going solo is not high, and this is the longest TK business I've ever done, and it has indeed proven to be fine over time.

I seem to remember that there is a saying that the three best businesses in the world are women's love of beauty, children's education, and men's color. We can all think about it.A brief analysis of TikTok's future dividends, TikTok's white entry reference

(5) Head of Mission Operations:

This board to speak bluntly is an intermediary, but this intermediary is officially supported by one of the three major e-commerce agency business (MCN, TSP, TAP), the same is my company's very main business segment.

Of course this is also I see domestic do TK, the most easy to earn money business, easy to start, even I 2023 know a circle friend called moon wild, initially a person to do this business, the Thai market, a month can earn tens of thousands of dollars.

I actually think it's pretty easy to make money on TK, it's just that some people have problems picking tracks to do TK on and their minds aren't open.

Many want to participate in TK or do training, there is a misunderstanding of thinking, that is, I do TK bandwagon, you have to do their own account, cut video, hanging links to do. Then there are all kinds of problems, either account limit flow, or not single, or single after the violation of the money can not get back.

Why don't you change your mind, there are a lot of anchors who can bring goods on TK, my last article is for people to sign these anchors up, we can share the money if they bring goods, then some people think the cost of signing and incubation is too high, then OK, take a step back, we don't sign these people, we just work with them and let them bring goods for us, so there is no cost at all, is there?

Contact information backstage have, don't look for those head anchors, look for some waist-tail anchors, also don't pit fees, and they said we have a lot of products, commissions are higher than the public program, you sell the same products can earn more, that but where these people are not fools, he could not possibly refuse ah.

Then go to say to the merchant, I have dozens of vertical people on my side can take your products, and all have sales data, so we can cooperate, I can quickly help you to improve your sales, but you have to give me a commission to improve some of the general merchants will not refuse.

In that case, for example, a waist can be sold a month of 3000 single, customer unit price of 3, 40 yuan, we want to 5% extra commission with the merchant, a single we earn 2 dollars, there are ten eight such people, this month tens of thousands of not to hand it. The whole process requires a WhatsApp to communicate just fine.

And thinking some more elevation, talk about good products, domestic is not so much to do TK training it, hands have a large number of students or do video handling team it, with them to cooperate, let them help sell goods is not good it, directly into the upper reaches.

In fact, the reason is so simple, do not ask why merchants and people do not directly build a link, because know how to build a link to the people have become the head of the business, the reason why there are still so many waist-tailed merchants, is that they do not have this thinking.

Shake has been developed for so many years, there are still more than 100,000 head agencies in the country, the information gap will always exist, and over time, the Darren relied on the agency, it will not be their own work to do the selection of sieve, anyway, it is to earn more, then someone to help him to talk about it, why not do it. This

The idea is the same as Jitterbug, if you can't become a Netflix yourself, then use Netflix to earn money.

OK, can see here, should still recognize what I said, then the next, I will say something more straightforward, but still only represents my personal views, not necessarily all right, or please look at it rationally.

A brief analysis of TikTok's future dividends, TikTok's white entry reference

III. TK's next development direction

(1) E-commerce replication: The

There is almost no need to say too much about this, even if we are the owners of TK, we know that the next step is to replicate the successful model to more markets, so why am I mentioning this here?

There is a phenomenon, you need to judge for yourself, TK at the beginning of the year is to say that 2024 plans to add at least 8 new markets, and then some time ago and notified that this year does not add other markets, All in the U.S., and constantly in the lowering of the threshold of the opening of the store, the Darren e-commerce permissions, the threshold of the opening of the broadcast, etc., are in the one drop again and again, is to hope that more people can participate in the U.S. area of the market for e-commerce.

So next up is my analysis, which I'll reiterate is my personal opinion only.

The U.S. region to be sanctioned things we may know, and TK is also very hard, chose to head-on just, never compromise, then I expect that regardless of the outcome, the U.S. region of TK at least one year, and this period of time the policy will also be better, TK official will also vigorously develop the U.S. region of the market.

On the one hand, if it stands in the U.S. zone, then the prospect is unlimited, on the other hand, increasing the number of participants, but also in order to put pressure on the upper echelons of the U.S. zone in terms of public opinion and social impact, according to the wholesale flag portraits on the Yiwu side, the U.S. zone should still be the same enigmatic man in the next session, although he is also stationed in the TK, but it was also him that proposed the ban for the first time, and no one knows what he'll do after that, the That's why I say the outcome is unpredictable.

So the question is, now the U.S. players, is not in the big gamble, TK won, we divide the market, TK lost, we will not become cannon fodder? So the risk and opportunity coexist, we need to look at it rationally.

Then say perfect area, I still say, TK next no matter which area to copy, in the early market there will be a bonus period, I hope you can continue to pay attention, do not miss the wind mouth.

(2) Supporting brands:

This is whether it is official or some local head sellers, have told me the same thing, I know a lot of big sellers selling goods on Lazada, Facebook, in the hearts of local merchants, TK is still a very early stage of the platform, in this platform can not sell products with high customer orders, then the platform will not always go to the low end of the route, so only the brand has a premium price space, and can make the Consumers have a sense of trust.

Some time ago with the vice president of Focus Media meeting, she also mentioned this point of view, too many sellers in China, only taking into account the difference in price of the product, but for the brand awareness is very poor, resulting in competitors to enter the competition, can only choose to fight the price war, depressing profits, and in the end to exit.

But the brand can traverse the time cycle, become a business model that can be inherited, this paragraph may be a little difficult to understand, I still take the case, I did almost 4 years of TK, cooperation with hundreds of merchants, can survive to today, and earn money, only the brand, without exception.

The biggest difference between the brand and the merchant is that in the publicity for the audience to present the memory of different points, the seller is presented, my product is how good, how low the price, cost-effective and so on, but the brand is presented, the brand can provide users with the value of what is it?

So no matter what platform we do, I hope that we can jump out of the misunderstanding of thinking about the price difference between buying and selling goods, and think with all our hearts about what contradictions we can solve for the society or what values we can provide to the society, so that the brand can travel through time and get the dividends of the hearts and minds.A brief analysis of TikTok's future dividends, TikTok's white entry reference

(3) Stimulate creativity:

This has always been Byte's vision, from Jitterbit's Record the Good Life to TK's Make your day, it can be seen that Byte is working hard to provide users with diversified video presentations, utilizing user tags and pushing the content that users like.

Then from the policy point of view, the medium video program launched by TK, and again re-raised the creator fund, are in accordance with the amount of playback in rewarding creators, the purpose is also to enable creators can create more quality video. On the one hand, it can increase the user's usage hours, and on the other hand, it can get the user's preferences more quickly for tagging.

So here is also a good idea for the project, that is, overseas creators have limited creativity and serious homogenization of video content, but new ideas are coming out from Jitterbit, Shutterstock, Xiaohongshu, Station B, etc., and they have also gone through many years of iterative development, so can we organize the ideas and export them to people overseas?

To tell you the truth, this project idea is also an idea that just popped up when I wrote this part, I originally wrote this to synchronize the policy for you, to tell you that the creator fund and the mid-video fund are ready to give it a try, the cost is low, but the periodicity is uncertain, and who knows how long the policy will last.

As a result of writing here, I suddenly feel that the matter of selling creativity is more reliable, and the sustainable cycle will also be very long, after all, there is still a gap of a few years between Jitterbug and TK, so if you make an overseas community, use AI translation, and export domestic creativity to the outside world, there should be a large number of TK creators who are willing to pay for it.

I'll be writing about this kind of out-of-the-box thinking entrepreneurial program in the following post, and it's what I'm focusing on this year, so bear with me.

IV. My new thoughts on the TK track

(1) Information Interaction: The

In fact, this idea has been reflected in the above paragraph. Globally, there is a lot of information that is not interoperable, and we talk about the existence of business because of the asymmetry of information, but the information is put there, and the market is also put there, and who can access, process, transfer and utilize the information becomes the key point of business.

Chinese people are very smart, the iteration of the project model is also very fast, so if it has been to cater to the market with constant changes, don't you think that the business will be very tired?

I do TK, also because in 2020, I saw that Jitterbug is very roll, so I replicated Jitterbug's realizing mode to overseas, although I didn't get rich overnight, but it's also a small success, with my mediocre ability, I can have a piece of cake in the overseas market, which I think is also a good result.

So this year I have a bold idea, I hope that I can take quality projects around the world and replicate them exotically. The only constant in this world is change, but we have to find an unchanging path to cope with the development of the times, then I choose the simplest model - replication.

Of course, just copying is not enough. If it were that simple, all cross-border businesses would be successful. In addition to replication, there is the need to land and expand, I have opened five branches in Southeast Asia, I know the difficulties of landing overseas, but these years have also accumulated a lot of experience, so I think that the project does not matter how big or small, as long as it can be landed, can be replicated, that can be attempted, at least this is the path is a shortcut.

Then TK's platform can be a big help for the project landing, so we change from relying on TK to do business, to using TK's platform to do business, from passive to active.

There are more people with this high cognition, but only a high cognition + execution team can get results. So the replication, landing and expansion of the project are indispensable.

A brief analysis of TikTok's future dividends, TikTok's white entry reference

(2) Branding for the sea:

This is also based on the trend of thought, now talking about the community of human destiny, but also with many countries to actively establish diplomatic relations, etc., are encouraging us to go out of the country, to the world, and now there are a lot of businessmen want to go to sea.

But brand awareness is weak, in fact, we can help China's brands to go global, on the one hand, can let the people of other countries in the world to enjoy the cost-effective products made in China, on the other hand, can also make our great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

A generation has a generation of mission, in fact, engage in money and sense of mission is not a conflict, earlier years I think Ma Yun is very hypocritical, said what did not touch the money, not interested in money and so on words, at that time were treated as a joke in the hearing, but in recent years to see, he is indeed a great man, helped so many merchants to realize the transformation of business, led to the development of China's e-commerce industry, but also to let China's economy soared, in a matter of twenty years to become the second largest economy in the world.

The national economy is also rapidly improving, I can now really be very responsible to say that China is really the best country in the world, I studied in Australia before, Melbourne same city to send courier have to be three days to get to, but now we buy things transported more than three days have to curse the street, this is the development of the convenience brought about by.

Many people may see this will say I'm singing high praise, say some big words, then we talk back to the matter of getting money, is there anyone who does not want to become a person like Jack Ma? Is there anyone who does not envy his wealth?

Then we have to look at the essence through the surface, Ma Yun is for the Chinese people to solve a great social needs, he let the whole of China's goods flow up, we can no longer go to the market these places can buy the products they want, so he used to be the richest man in China, which is normal, after all, a few years earlier, Amazon's Bezos is also the richest man in the world.

So after you read my article, you actually already know the importance of brands going overseas, and we also have the ability to help these brands, so shouldn't we shoulder such a mission, and at the same time, we can also get the income we want, why not? We can think about it.

(3) Private domain model:

This part of the conversation is a bit of a landing, I've lived overseas a lot over the years, and although all the business I've done has been TK's public domain projects, I still believe in my heart of hearts that it's the private domain that's the uncapped segment.

From the direct sales, micro business and so on mode, private domain is the real wealth can be accumulated, even if the public domain today sells millions of goods, but as long as the platform has some changes, in an instant nothing, can be a lot of space in the private domain, a lot of people think that the private domain can only sell the black five, but in fact, the private domain is the whole category can be operated by the model.

Because the private domain is a user to maintain this step, you can learn more about the user's needs, according to the different labels, to provide products and services to meet their needs, I am learning marketing and management, in the course, there is a clear description, sales is not selling products, sales is selling trust, even if the public domain to do more cattle, it is impossible to sell dozens of millions of unit price of the product, but the private domain can be.

The houses I bought were all because of the agent's recommendation in WeChat, and although there are daily talks about housing price trends and analyzing locations on Shake Shack, there's no way I'm going to be able to buy this kind of thing in the public domain when he's talking about it all the way through the day, or to close a deal in the private domain.

Moreover, I think that after the process of the private domain model has run through, it is possible to carry out unlimited expansion. Let's talk about a case, I know a Malay-Chinese who sells mother and baby products, and has broadcast more than 1,500 live broadcasts on Facebook, with online sales of less than 20 million, we may think that his ability is not good, or the Malay market is too small.

But he did a community, which has more than 30,000 baby moms, his private domain can turn over more than 70 million a year, the team together less than 30 people, is expected to 2027, the company went public.

But he only did the Malay Chinese market ah, together less than 6 million people, he only 30,000 more than the private domain users can do to go public, this is the prospect is unlimited.

By the way, he is broadcasting in Chinese. Do you have an urge to watch this? Do you have a feeling that he can do it and I can do it too? Is language still important? Is it what I said above, the most important thing is to be able to replicate it on the ground?

So TK will become the largest public domain pool of new media, I have no doubt about that at all, but what exactly will we be able to sink after three to five years of doing TK? It's worth thinking about.

A brief analysis of TikTok's future dividends, TikTok's white entry reference

(4) Win-win cooperation:

This piece is actually my biggest gain since I arrived in Hangzhou. I used to earn money from my brain, thinking that I was smarter than others and that users were dumber than me, so I could earn their money.

But after I came to Hangzhou, the company I am now working with conducts training on personal cognitive enhancement, which has taught me that money is not earned subjectively, but is rewarded by the laws of nature because of the altruistic things we do.

I have worked with many friends, their projects I have in the exotic to help replicate the landing, and even some in the early stages of the project did not think about how to share the income, and started to do, the idea is to achieve each other.

Many people may think it's false, but as a result, I got the income I deserved, and my cooperative circlemates found a larger market, and even some of the circlemates who followed along found their own niche and made a more desirable income.

Resource integration, win-win cooperation is not a slogan, it is a heartfelt recognition of each other, recognize the efforts of comrades in arms, can rest assured that the back to the other comrades in arms.

That article is basically coming to an end here, and to conclude, I still think that we can't realize the crossing, but TK does give us a sense of crossing.

Because we all know Jitterbug, we also know the next direction of TK and the path to success we can take through this platform. So the overseas market is so big, how should we cut into it, this need to think carefully, do not blindly follow the trend.

In addition the barrel theory is not applicable these years, sometimes there is no way to make up for their own short boards, because there is no way for us to be proficient in the whole chain, so discover your own long board, amplify this long board indefinitely, and then find other people's long boards for the combination, in order to make this barrel infinite, and the long board infinite amplification of the simplest way is to mature things unlimited replication, landing and expansion.

A brief analysis of TikTok's future dividends, TikTok's white entry reference

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